Happy Memorial Day!
So here we are at the end of May, spring in full swing (somewhere else that is, pouring rain here).
And I mean POURING! If this keeps up we'll go into business of building large wooden ships (like Noah) instead of Forex trading. Summer, however coming soon and everything will get sunny and rosy again.
Depending on who wins the World Cup! As you see there is always some obstacle on the road to happiness. If only trading was good!
I've just seen some marginal life form on TV peddling a Forex trading software. You pay 4-5000$, just plug it in and money practically prints itself! Peace of mind, you just haul money to the bank by the truck load!
In the mean time our System 1 is still struggling. We think we are reaching the end of loosing streak. The distribution of gains end losses indicates performance improvement soon.
So System 1 lost 51 pips last week, for May is loosing 271 pips and year to date is about break even.
Follow this link to view all details.
System 2 is doing better, it made 20 pips last week, is -73 pips for the month and 173 pips for 2006. To see trade by trade results click here.
Incidentally, we don't expect much movement Monday, especially US session. We will however place trades
as we always do for our own accounts. Signals will be generated but please use your own discretion on whether to trade on Monday.
|
Discretionary trades.
Just like we mentioned last week, we'll do something different today. We will return to regular format next week. Anyways, let's take a look at something that nobody seems to say anything about. British Pound, or rather the new resurgence of this currency.
We dug up very long term charts of this currency against Swiss Franc (GBP-CHF) and Japanese Yen(GBP-JPY).We believe that extremely long term bear market in GBP is over and going long this currency especially against CHF and JPY can be very profitable for years to come. Don't be surprised if you see a lot of long trades in these crosses on our pages if the future.
Here are three charts of monthly GBP-CHF going back 30 years, 20 years and about 15 years. The last is the most specific. Our interpretation of charting tells us that a massive bottom has already formed and trend is going to be up. Take a look. |
 |
| 30 years of monthly data |
|
|
 |
| 20 years of monthly data |
|
|
 |
| First long term target 2.7500 within next 2 years. |
|
|
We will go out on a limb and subject ourselves to ridicule, but here is our view on the future of GBP-CHF.
Within a year we expect to see 2.4000, next important level is 2.7000 in about 3 years. Within 5-7 years 3.400 is very possible and 4.500 in 10-12 years is likely. Beyond that we enter a land of fantasy, wishful thinking and, well, madness.
How to take advantage of these developments? There is a couple of ways. First one is for investors strictly. Simply enter a LONG position in GBP-CHF at a leverage no higher that 50%(2:1), collect a nice interest rate differential and hold for 10 years. But do it with a BANK not a broker. Who knows if broker is going to be around that long. I the meantime you must be ready to sit through corrective moves as deep as 1500-2000 pips. Estimated compounded return in 10 years- about 20% a year.
Another way to take advantage of situation is to follow periodical long trades published on these pages .
They will likely have targets of between 100 to 500 pips and duration between a day to 4-6 months.
|
| Next in line is GBP-JPY. We see this situation as very similar to GBP-CHF. Please take a look at the 30, 20 and 15 years of monthly charts and following notes. |
 |
| 30 years of monthly data |
|
|
 |
| 20 tears of monthly data. |
|
|
 |
| Target 225.00 within a year |
|
|
Here is how see future unfold for GBP-JPY. Price should reach 225.00 level within a year or so, 250.00 in 2-3 years, 300.00 in 3-5 years and maybe as high as 370.00 in 7-10 years.
One can approach it just like our previous example, establishing a long position at 2:1 leverage(at the most!) and holding it for ten years. In our opinion GBP-JPY presents a little less attractive proposition than GBP-CHF over very long term buy and hold strategy, with compounded returns of maybe 17-18% over next 10 years. Still expect very deep correctional moves.
That said GBP-JPY presents in our opinion a better trading opportunity as moves tend to be a little better defined than GBP-CHF. We will continue to monitor both and you should keep on checking these pages ! |
Next weeks trades.
Really quickly, as this report is becoming very long and start putting even me to sleep ( I can only imagine what it does to readers!) We have a standing order to go LONG GBP-JPY at 211.35 with 216.00 target.
For those of you seeking something with faster resolution we offer a BUY in USD-JPY at 113.05 with a target of 115.00. We enclose a chart of USD-JPY. We think that trade will take 1-2 weeks to meet our target.
Next week we will review all of our featured trades.
Good trading everybody! |
 |
| Target 115.00 |
|
|
Once again we must stress that the trades highlighted here are only a small sample of our trades. If you have any comments or would like to obtain more information please contact us at info@spectrumforex.com . |
|